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As Mr Trump returned to the White House on January 20, the Washington DC think-tank, the Cato Institute, issued a report maintaining that "in the next four years, no category of legal immigration will escape restrictions".The report pointed out that: (1) legal migration to the US was now much higher than during Mr Trump's first term; (2) the president had repeatedly promised to impose even more severe restrictions on legal entries than he did during his first term; and (3) his legal immigration agenda was never fully implemented during his first term "so we should expect much more serious cuts".The report added: "Trump has promised mass deportation, but this will be more difficult to achieve. It is far easier to end legal activity than end illegal activity, so he will attempt to appease his nativist base and the nationalist political class by cutting legal immigration."Although President Trump occasionally makes statements in support of legal immigration, his advisers and most of his active political supporters are universally opposed to any effort to expand legal immigration, even for skilled workers."Lewis Silkin, a specialist employment law firm headquartered in London, says Mr Trump's re-election could well affect global flows of people, both to and from the US as well as in other regions of the world.The firm's analysis says the president's 'America first' agenda is expected to impact international businesses, both in terms of growth and where they can employ people."This is not least due to the proposed policies in America that, if implemented, will make it more difficult for employers to employ who they want, where they want, and move people around their organisations globally," says Lewis Silkin. The firm points to three areas of concern, including the fact Mr Trump's policies could make the US a less attractive place for international assignees, while existing employees in America might wish to relocate, at least for the next four years."In terms of what the new presidency might mean for business immigration," the analysis adds, "there is speculation that the processing times for the H-1B and L-1 work routes may again increase as they did under the last Trump administration, and that extensions and green card applications may be made more difficult. Work right petitions for partners of workers in these routes may also be delayed or discontinued."More generally, the movement of people into America (e.g. an inbound secondment, or relocation) could face some additional challenges as a result of stricter immigration rules that the president has stated will form part of his agenda. At the very least, there are expected to be longer wait times, more scrutiny on visa applications and requests for further evidence to support applications from non-Americans wanting to seek the right to work and live in America."And, adds Lewis Silkin, Mr Bush might well impose visa and travel bans on nationals from specific countries, much as he did during his first stint in Washington.

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Laura Collins, director of the economic growth initiative at the George W. Bush Institute in Dallas, Texas, believes that an executive order signed by Mr Trump during his first week in office, which aims to enhance the security vetting of all visa applicants, could turn out to be "the most damaging to the long-term economic health of the US".She says: "While the goal of increasing public safety is laudable, similar vetting in the first Trump Administration slowed legal immigration significantly, reducing the number of foreign-born workers available to contribute to the economy.  "These executive orders, if they are all fully implemented and enforced, will restructure American immigration policy to be primarily focused on enforcement and will reduce the pace of legal immigration to the US.  "Immigration is important to the future prosperity, vitality, and security of our country. There are currently millions of open jobs, and the US birth rate continues to fall."By 2040, all population growth in the US is projected to come from immigrants. Rather than focusing solely on enforcement, the US government should design an immigration system that meets today’s needs and promotes economic growth."Fears over Mr Trump's likely effects on legal migration and global mobility are only overshadowed by what his much-publicised plans are for imposing tariffs on international exports heading into the US, with his prime targets appearing to be China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union.The president has already signed a 'broad trade memorandum' instructing federal agencies to complete a comprehensive review of trade issues by April 1, including an analysis of persistent US trade deficits, unfair trade practices and currency manipulation among partner countries. The memorandum calls for recommendations on remedies, including a "global supplemental tariff".Hence, nobody is sure what is going to happen, including, it seems, Mr Trump himself. At one stage he talked about imposing tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods, yet by the end of his first week in office, he was telling Fox News that he "would rather not" have to impose any such penalties on China...only to add that tariffs represented America's "tremendous power" over Beijing.And only 24 hours before that, in a live video broadcast to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Trump told global executives that they could either produce their goods in the US or face widespread tariffs worth hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of dollars.He had earlier singled out the EU as a bloc that had a troubling trade surplus with the United States. "The European Union is very, very bad to us," he said. "So they're going to be in for tariffs. It's the only way...you're going to get fairness."   Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organisation, told the Davos gathering that such a move could spark a global, tit-for-tat trade war that would have devastating consequences for global growth. "If we have tit-for-tat retaliation...we're going to see double-digit global GDP losses. That's catastrophic. Everyone will pay," he said.The UK, however, remains quietly optimistic that it will escape any tariffs that Mr Trump imposes. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said in Davos that she did not think the UK would be a target mainly because the UK had a trade deficit with America."I believe in free and open trade, and I'll be making that case to my counterparts in the United States. I'm excited about the opportunity to work with the new Trump administration," she said."Trade between the UK and the US is worth £300 billion a year. A million Brits work for American firms, a million Americans work for British firms, so our economies are closely intertwined, and I look forward to enhancing and strengthening that relationship."Just how much of that relationship - along with so much else – survives the test of time, remains to be seen.

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